It is nigh on inevitable. And both history and events suggest it is on the cards.
7 June 1981, Israel bombed the French-built Osiraq nuclear plant near Iraq’s capital, Baghdad.
6 September 2007, Israeli jets allegedly* targeted a site that Israeli and American intelligence analysts judged was a partly constructed nuclear reactor.
* “Allegedly”, because Syria never confirmed the attack nor what was actually hit.
History has shown that whenever it felt under threat of an enemy acquiring hostile nuclear capability, Israel has attacked without delay.
On Friday Shaul Mofaz, a former defence minister and chief of staff, said in an interview to Israel’s Yediot Ahronot newspaper: “If Iran continues its nuclear-arms program, we will attack it.”
Israelis do not trust what their politicians say, and especially so with the prospect of their Prime Minister stepping down on corruption allegations, but there are two aspects of this story that make it all the more ominous:
1. Israelis feel increasingly threatened by Iran’s nuclear programme, and doubly so after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, in October 2005, that “Israel must be wiped off the map”. The mood of Israelis I’ve spoken to is akin to that of US citizens during the cold war, with a nuclear attack a tangible possibility, and the panic of “Duck and Cover” drills. The Knesset (Israeli Parliament) is aware of this undercurrent, and will not hesitate to act, as it did in the past.
2. Although The comments made by Mofaz are viewed by many as political positioning for his own promotion (in preparation for a possible departure of PM Ehud Olmert), Israelis also know that Mofaz is one of the army’s elite. Even in his current position as Minister of Transport, he is still a former Chief of Staff, and is closer than anyone to the army intelligence’s views on these matters. In a country where the military is so close to the political, his background gives him an insight into the frame-of-mind and field-thinking of the Military Intelligence.
No one in Israel doubts that the threats made by Mofaz are real. If anything, the only reason why the attack may not happen right away is because Mofaz is not foolish enough to warn Iran just before an attack, thus allowing it to redistribute its arsenal and move core equipment to safer silo locations.
He probably also realises now, that the US is going to be a little more ‘difficult’ on this one (The term WMD is a tad sensitive), but if worse comes to worse, the US is likely to give Israel the nod-and-wink treatment, while ‘condemning’ it publically after the attack.
And how are Israelis reacting? One comment to the article on the Yediot Ahronot website captures the spirit of many other responses:
“Don’t Talk [About it]
It’s a pity that Mofaz is talking nonsense, as usual - We shouldn’t talk about these things, as we never used to in the past, when there were less media around. These days every kid in search of a headline expresses his views on critical matters like Iran’s nuclear capability.
Don’t talk -Act…” (source).
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